For years, the narrative seemed settled: electric vehicles (EVs) would quickly replace internal combustion engines (ICE), and the traditional petrol forecourt would soon become a relic of the past. Policymakers, manufacturers, and investors all pointed towards an all-electric future.
But 2025 has brought a new signal from both car makers and banks, and it’s not the one most people expected.
Manufacturers Are Rethinking the Transition
Recent reporting from the Financial Times suggests that major auto makers are recalibrating their expectations. Ford, GM, and Stellantis are collectively committing billions to developing cleaner internal combustion and hybrid models, effectively ‘falling back in love with petrol’.
Slowing EV demand, changing subsidy structures, and an influx of low-cost Chinese EVs have forced Western manufacturers to re-examine their strategies. This comment from GM’s CFO captures the moment succinctly: ‘The ICE tail is fatter and longer than anybody expected.’
It’s not a rejection of electrification but a recognition that the energy transition is turning out to be more complex and gradual than first predicted.
Banks Are Extending Their Bets on Forecourts
At the same time, the UK’s financial sector appears to be aligning with this reassessment. According to Forecourt Trader, banks are now extending loan terms for forecourt assets, removing the 2035 repayment cut-off that once mirrored the ICE phase-out target.
That subtle change carries a clear signal: lenders see petrol forecourts as profitable and resilient beyond policy deadlines. And manufacturers and financiers rarely move in the same direction unless the underlying data supports it.
Back to the Data
EdgeData’s real-time analytics paint a similar picture. Across the UK, petrol volumes have remained stable, even showing a slight increase in certain regions. Diesel sales, meanwhile, continue their gradual decline, though many former diesel drivers are shifting to petrol or hybrid vehicles rather than going electric.
Globally, EV growth is slowing too. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that while sales are still rising, growth has cooled dramatically, from 40% in 2023 to roughly 10% in 2024. The once steep energy transition curve is beginning to flatten.
What This Means for Forecourt Operators
The transition away from fossil fuels isn’t being reversed, but it is being recalibrated. The path from ICE to EV is proving to be tapered rather than linear. In this in-between period, hybrids and efficient petrol engines are acting as bridge technologies, extending the lifespan of traditional forecourts.
Banks aren’t betting on petrol itself; they’re backing businesses with resilient cash flow, those adapting to commercial reality rather than chasing policy ambition. And that adaptability is increasingly being driven by data.
At EdgePetrol and EdgeData Pro, we see that site-level transaction data often reveals the truth long before market sentiment does. The petrol economy still has momentum, and operators who understand their volumes, margins, and customer behaviour in real time will be best placed to thrive during this period of transition.
How Operators Are Responding
Forward-thinking retailers aren’t standing still. Many are:
- diversifying their offerings, investing in food-to-go, convenience retail, and non-fuel services to build resilience as fuel margins tighten
- preparing for an EV future, installing chargers not for immediate returns but to stake their position in tomorrow’s mobility network
- leveraging data-driven tooling, using APIs and real-time analytics to optimise logistics and inventory.
Despite the noise about EVs and phase-out dates, the number of UK petrol stations is actually growing, a sign that operators remain confident in the enduring role of forecourts in the mobility ecosystem.
Download the Full EdgeData Report
The data tells a more nuanced story than the headlines suggest. The internal combustion engine isn’t dead, it’s evolving.
For a deeper dive into these trends, including detailed regional breakdowns and site-level insights, download our full October EdgeData report here.
